# PROJECTING KINSHIP RESOURCES FOR THE ELDERLY

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · 1992 · $82,024

## Abstract

Changing demographic rates entail eventual changes in the numbers and
types of living kin that elderly persons will have and thus in their
potential kin-based resources.  Computer microsimulation is a tool for
projection these changes in kinship resources based on assumptions about
the future course of demographic rates.  This project will begin with an
external validity study, believed to be the first ever conducted for
kinship projection, comparing earlier projections of 1980s kinship
against empirical estimates from the National Survey of Families and
Households (NSFH).  Next the effect of employing different modelling
techniques will be assessed by comparing two sets of Chinese kinship
forecasts, one derived by computer microsimulation and the other by the
alternative technique of family status life tables.  The microsimulation
projection model and U.S. historical rate sets will be revised on the
basis of these tests.  NSFH information of kin counts will be
extrapolated to the over-80 population using simulation where sample
sizes are insufficient for stable estimates.  New kinship projections
for the U.S. will then be prepared down to 2050, separately for blacks
and for whites and others, using a range of alternative forecasts of
future demographic rates.  The NSFH makes it possible to assess the
degree to which kin of different types within kinship congfigurations of
different types actually do now provide support of various kinds.  This
will allow the construction and projection of kinship-based resource
indices for the United States which go beyond kin counts.  Special
emphasis will be placed on assessment of kinship networks for the
"oldest old".

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 3121703
- **Project number:** 1R01AG009781-01
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY
- **SAM.gov UEI:** GS3YEVSS12N6
- **Principal Investigator:** KENNETH WILLCOX WACHTER
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 1992
- **Award amount:** $82,024
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 1992-09-30 → 1996-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3121703

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 3121703, PROJECTING KINSHIP RESOURCES FOR THE ELDERLY (1R01AG009781-01). Retrieved via MORVS 2026-10-25 from https://api.morvs.ai/grant/nih/3121703. Licensed CC0.

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