# IMPROVED VERSUS DETERIORATED PHYSICAL FUNCTIONING

> **NIH NIH R01** · CITY COLLEGE OF NEW YORK · 1991 · $104,477

## Abstract

The usual prognosis for long-term disabled elders is that they are
not likely to improve or regain independent functional status.  But
computed transition probabilities reveal significant probabilities of
improvement at all levels of disability.  Yet, not much is known about
what determines who improves and who deteriorates.  This study plans to
identify the characteristics that differentiate between improving and
deteriorating functional status and to estimate how much each
characteristic contributes to the probabilities of improvement or
deterioration.  By finding these characteristics, policy makers will be
better equipped to devise measures that raise the probability of
improvement and lower the probability of deterioration.
          The study will be based on the National Long-Term Care Surveys
(NLTCS) of 1982 and 1984 and the linked Medicare (Part A) file.
Improvement and deterioration of functional status are measured by
comparing limitations in the physical activities of daily living in both
years.  The level of disability in these years is known for 5,388 persons
(896 improved, 1,826 remained the same, and 2,666 deteriorated).  The
regression analysis will be based on the universal logit model, which
will provide separate coefficient vectors for "improved" and
"deteriorated," using "same" as a basis for comparison.  Partial
derivatives or partial differences, which are computed from the
regression coefficients (of 13 types of variables), can measure how much
each of the specified explanatory variables contributes to changes in the
probabilities of improvement and deterioration.  The magnitudes of the
effects of the specified variables can provide an order of priority for
targeting the policy-amenable factors to enhance the likelihood of
improvement and diminish the possibility of deterioration.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 3121974
- **Project number:** 1R01AG010010-01
- **Recipient organization:** CITY COLLEGE OF NEW YORK
- **SAM.gov UEI:** L952KGDMSLV5
- **Principal Investigator:** RACHEL F BOAZ
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 1991
- **Award amount:** $104,477
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 1991-09-01 → 1993-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3121974

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 3121974, IMPROVED VERSUS DETERIORATED PHYSICAL FUNCTIONING (1R01AG010010-01). Retrieved via MORVS 2026-10-25 from https://api.morvs.ai/grant/nih/3121974. Licensed CC0.

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