# MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF OLDEST-OLD MORTALITY

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · 1993 · $90,962

## Abstract

A key variable affecting the public and private health care systems of
the U.S. and other countries is the current trend in old-age mortality.
At all ages below 100 years, and perhaps at higher ages as well, the
chance of dying in any one year of life has fallen in this century.  As
a result, life expectancy at birth continues to rise.  A continuation of
this fortunate trend depends primarily on prospects for a sustained
decline in mortality rates at very old ages.

Will the trend toward higher life expectancy continue in the next
century?  Clearly, no one can predict the future with certainty.  Rather,
this project seeks to answer a more limited set of questions:  How
rapidly has the improvement in old-age mortality taken place?  What age
ranges have been affected?  Have mortality rates fallen at extremely high
ages, say above 100 or 105 years?  Is there any reason to believe, based
on trends in mortality rates at extreme ages, that the upward trend in
life expectancy may eventually encounter a biological upper limit?

A large portion of the current uncertainty with regard to the real trends
in old-age mortality is due to problems of data quality, particularly the
problem of age misreporting.  A major component of this project will
address this issue.  Which countries or states have relatively more
accurate mortality data?  What techniques are available for identifying
and perhaps correcting inconsistencies in mortality data?  How do
inaccuracies in the raw data affect the estimation of mortality trends?

Based on data from Japan, France, England and Wales, Sweden, and the
United States, this project will concentrate on the accurate measurement
of mortality rates among the oldest old.  The main purpose is to document
the changes in old-age mortality that have taken place over the last
century, keeping in mind the theoretical issues and policy implications
that motivate an interest in the trends themselves.

Unique or innovative features of this project include:  a systematic
evaluation of data quality and its effects on the estimation of old-age
mortality rates; a thorough analysis of techniques for extending the
method of extinct generations to non-extinct cohorts; an application of
the statistical theory of extreme values to the study of data quality;
a thorough documentation of both period and cohort trends in old-age
mortality for five countries; a critical investigation of indirect
methods for estimating mortality rates at very old ages, in particular
the Coale-Kisker procedure; and, finally, calculation of old-age
mortality rates for 50 states in the U.S., with particular attention
given to the comparative quality of mortality data by state.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 3123462
- **Project number:** 1R01AG011552-01
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY
- **SAM.gov UEI:** GS3YEVSS12N6
- **Principal Investigator:** JOHN R WILMOTH
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 1993
- **Award amount:** $90,962
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 1993-07-21 → 1996-06-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3123462

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 3123462, MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF OLDEST-OLD MORTALITY (1R01AG011552-01). Retrieved via MORVS 2026-10-25 from https://api.morvs.ai/grant/nih/3123462. Licensed CC0.

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