EAGER: Hybrid human-AI technologies for forecasting trends.

NSF Award Search · 01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT · $299,549 · view on nsf.gov ↗

Abstract

This EAGER project is developing hybrid (human-AI) technologies for forecasting complex sociotechnical outcomes. The project considers community experiences of social media as a proving ground for design and development. In doing so, it is laying theoretical and empirical groundwork for future technologies supporting user governance in shared spaces online. The project’s research has the main objectives of advancing machine learning and artificial intelligence to support the integration of human inputs through hybrid prediction markets, wherein humans participate alongside bot of AI-enabled traders to buy and sell assets representing future outcomes and deploying hybrid prediction markets to forecast user experiences, perspectives, and narratives online. This project is the first comprehensive effort to build and test hybrid prediction markets for integrated human-AI forecasting, and thus is a high risk-high reward EAGER effort. The approach will fold in human input as other machine learning algorithms cannot, i.e., directly within the algorithm's deployment, showcasing an opportunity for the integration of first-person perspectives and machine learning for complex tasks where participatory design is desirable. Markets will be studied theoretically and in practice, and thoroughly compared against a suite of computational, crowdsourced and hybrid benchmarks, including supervised and semi-supervised algorithms, survey elicitation, and ensembling. The market approach could e

Key facts

NSF award ID
2537350
Awardee
Pennsylvania State Univ University Park (PA)
SAM.gov UEI
NPM2J7MSCF61
PI
Sarah Rajtmajer
Primary program
01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
All programs
CNCI, Human factors for security research, SaTC: Secure and Trustworthy Cyberspace, EAGER, Machine Learning Theory
Estimated total
$299,549
Funds obligated
$299,549
Transaction type
Standard Grant
Period
10/01/2025 → 09/30/2027