DESCRIPTION: (Adapted From The Applicant's Abstract) The aim of this project is to extend and develop the dynamic analysis and application of models of human demography building on the investigator's previous work. The specific aims are: (1) to develop and apply feedback models of controlled populations to contemporary and historical populations; (2) to extend the analysis and application of stochastic population models in the area of forecasting; and (3) to study the dynamics and application of demographic models of childhood infectious disease. The specific goals of the work on feedback models of controlled populations are: (a) analysis of stochastically perturbed nonlinear models which are below the threshold of internally sustained cycles; (b) analysis of models which incorporate feedback in the timing and level of reproduction; (c) application of the models in a) and b) to recent experience in the U.S. and several European populations; and (d) analysis, application and testing of a marriage regulation model of Henry and Bonneuil using reconstructed population data from seventeenth century France. The specific goals of the work on stochastic models are: a) analysis of the properties of stochastic versions of population momentum and reproductive value; b) application of these developments and extant stochastic theory to forecasts of age-composition and population size in the U.S. in the near and middle term. The specific goal of the work on demographic-epidemiological models is to explore the linkage between demographic fluctuations and epidemiological fluctuations with application to specific data.